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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Air Products And Chemicals, Inc. (XNYS:APD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
APD
Name:
AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC. (XNYS:APD)
Sector:
121.40M
Industry:
Specialty Chemicals
CEO:
Mr. Seifollah Ghasemi
Total Employees:
20,625
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 6.90% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AIR PRODUCTS AND CHEMICALS, INC.(APD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
246.53
One Month Price Target:
$247.64
Six Month Price Target :
$253.17
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$259.82
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$245.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$247.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$236.25
This week:
$223.53
This month :
$200.53
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
54.60B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
221.80M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.72%
-12.6%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$294.26
$272.39
$198.80
$220.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$265.27
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$260.60
$227.73
$232.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
APD
Sharpe Ratio:
1.10%
Comparison:
APD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -47.96% lower than the industry
& is -51.63% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
APD
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.16%
Monthly returns:
0.63%
Yearly returns:
24.57%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -69.32% below industry average
Classification:
APD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.13
Statistical test of Returns:
APD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.05%
Weekly Volatility:
4.58%
Monthly Volatility:
9.15%
Yearly Volatility:
31.71%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.37%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.17%
Weekly VaR:
-9.33%
Monthly VaR:
-18.66%
How Much Can the price of
APD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-64.63%
This translates to price declining to:
$206.74
This translates to price declining to:
$87.20
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
APD is a 31.68% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 12.81% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.11% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
APD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.80
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.696
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.984
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.562
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.718
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.753
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.151
Beta is -30.29% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.164
Beta is -31.11% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.36%
Sustainable growth rate is -77.97% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.011
Alpha is -108.23% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -70% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
APD
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -22.30% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.79%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.41%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.41%
WACC is -20.06% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$51.33
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.8
Annual revenue growth rate is 749.92% above the industry average
EPS:
$10.04
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.01%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 672.89% higher than the Specialty Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.74
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.52%
Equity growth rate per share is 268.46% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$32.36
EBITDA per share
$18.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
APD
P/E Ratio:
24.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.21
P/E ratio is 10.68% higher than main peers & is -34.37% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $376.09
APD is -34.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $145.42
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $126.84
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.8
Price to sales ratio is 74.07% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.8
Price to free cash flow: 141.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is 59.74% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
38.69%
Net income growth rate is -169.98% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 14.86%
Dividend yeild: 2.53%
Previous Dividend: $1.62
Previous adjusted dividend: $1.62
Previous Dividend: $6.24
Expected next dividend best case: $1.74
Expected next dividend worst case: $1.50
Average dividend payment (long-term): $1.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.55%
Expected next dividend payment date: 11/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 08/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$1.62
2021-12-31--$1.50
2021-06-30--$1.50
2022-03-31--$1.62
2021-09-30--$1.50
2021-03-31--$1.50
Dividend growth rate is -82.71% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
32.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
26.46%
Net debt to assets ratio:
16.31%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.09% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
31.61
Interest coverage ratio is 50.33% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.02%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 5.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.738
Statistical significance of correlation:
APD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.58
Stock price is 27.36% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.58
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.006
Kurtosis
8.924
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.12
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
APD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.01%
Operating profit margin is -107.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.53%
Effective tax rate is -2.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43.76% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is 213.74% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.47
Current ratio is -8.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-30.1
Cash conversion cycle is -148.82% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 11.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
552.0K
Each employee generates -26% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
202.0K
Each employee generates 104% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
108.4K
Each employee generates 241% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.9K
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.0M
Each employee generates -116% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 11.44%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 9.44% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
APD
ECOLAB INC. (XNYS:ECL)
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC. (XNYS:FCX)
Vale SA (XNYS:VALE)
NEWMONT CORPORATION (XNYS:NEM)
THE SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY (XNYS:SHW)
Dow Inc. (XNYS:DOW)
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (XNYS:DD)
CRH PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:CRH)
PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:PPG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�46%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.39B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.18B
3.20B
95.90M
875.20M
875.20M
-
- 48100.00K
923.00M
-
131.80M
1.34B
4.17B
2.28B
2.23B
2.64B
463.00M
2.23B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
332.30M
Differed Income Tax :
15.70M
Stock Based Compensation :
15.80M
Change in Working Capital :
6.70M
Accounts Receivables:
- 132700.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 8500.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 145700.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
785.20M
Investments in PP&E:
- 663800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1667300.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 727400.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2022
Q1
2.95B
728.60M
3.68B
2.18B
487.20M
135.30M
6.48B
13.62B
923.30M
418.80M
3.33B
-
2.35B
20.64B
-
27.13B
2.31B
199.70M
119.80M
-
119.80M
2.63B
7.18B
1.73B
10.12B
-
12.75B
249.40M
15.91B
- 1452300.0K
14.38B
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
9.11B
13.83B
26.57B
4.06B
7.38B
4.4B
1.33B
7.50M
- 1719100.00K
- 400000.00K
-
-
- 332100.00K
147.00M
- 585100.00K
3.80M
- 1515200.00K
2.95B
4.47B
785.20M
- 663800.00K
121.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
APD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$288.07
$303.60
$319.96
$337.21
$355.38