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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Air Lease Corporation (XNYS:AL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AL
Name:
AIR LEASE CORPORATION (XNYS:AL)
Sector:
254.69M
Industry:
Rental & Leasing Services
CEO:
Mr. John Plueger
Total Employees:
129
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AIR LEASE CORPORATION(AL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RENTAL & LEASING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
36.17
One Month Price Target:
$36.54
Six Month Price Target :
$38.37
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$40.58
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.92
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$32.83
This week:
$28.71
This month :
$21.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.04B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
110.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
45.36%
-31.01%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.65
$44.56
$20.69
$27.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$42.26
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.74
$30.06
$31.60
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AL
Sharpe Ratio:
1.20%
Comparison:
AL, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -60.03% lower than the industry
& is -47.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AL
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
31.25%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -51.59% below industry average
Classification:
AL, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
AL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.52%
Weekly Volatility:
10.11%
Monthly Volatility:
20.22%
Yearly Volatility:
70.06%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.66% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.22%
Weekly VaR:
-20.63%
Monthly VaR:
-41.25%
How Much Can the price of
AL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$23.24
This translates to price declining to:
$5.43
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AL is a 191.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 149.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.81% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.121
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.585
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.921
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.134
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.21
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.227
Beta is 47.76% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.628
Beta is 11.39% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.11%
Sustainable growth rate is -57.63% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.004
Alpha is -102.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -28% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AL
Equity cost of capital:
0.156
Equity cost of capital is 8.88% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.93
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.63
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.41% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -199.10% lower than the Rental & Leasing Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 124.88%
Equity growth rate per share is 378.11% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
-$3,112.78
Valuation Analysis Today of
AL
P/E Ratio:
11.55
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.79
P/E ratio is -31.19% lower than main peers & is -35.93% lower than the industry
-
AL is -249.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $10.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.81
Price to sales ratio is -3.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.63
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-21.27%
Net income growth rate is -109.33% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.00%
Dividend yeild: 1.98%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.20
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.23%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/07/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-06--$0.19
2021-12-16--$0.19
2021-06-07--$0.16
2022-03-17--$0.19
2021-09-09--$0.16
2021-03-18--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -676.28% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
284.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-23.40%
Debt to assets ratio:
74.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -1.14% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-2041.65
Interest coverage ratio is 5035.57% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.05%
Annual debt growth is -85% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 100.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.553
Statistical significance of correlation:
AL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.547
Stock price is 1.02% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.547
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
27.198
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.556
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
210%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
21.54%
Operating profit margin is 121.14% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
210%
Effective Tax Rate:
65.96%
Effective tax rate is 190.11% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-7521.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is 15578.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1782.58%
Return on assets (ROA) is -45436.77% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
3.8x
Current Ratio:
2.78
Current ratio is 117.98% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 13.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
17.1M
Each employee generates 650% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 2675833.6K
Each employee generates 800% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3713685.7K
Each employee generates 800% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 811% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates 811% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AL
ARMSTRONG WORLD INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:AWI)
CLEAN HARBORS, INC. (XNYS:CLH)
HAYWARD HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:HAYW)
VALMONT INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:VMI)
FTI CONSULTING, INC. (XNYS:FCN)
MANPOWERGROUP INC. (XNYS:MAN)
CURTISS-WRIGHT CORPORATION (XNYS:CW)
SPIRIT AEROSYSTEMS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:SPR)
TKR
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�21%
Hold�8%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.21B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.02B
1.19B
-
21.11M
152.24M
98.37M
-
152.24M
-
169.07M
908.91M
- 345182538.00K
476.08M
- 479065460.00K
201.33B
132.80B
- 479065460.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
235.31M
Differed Income Tax :
- 133360.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
- 2523.00K
Change in Working Capital :
624.26M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
254.69M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.49B
-
1.49B
-
-
-
1.49B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
25.38B
26.87B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
880.38M
21.39B
20.51B
1.11M
3.11B
- 70.0K
3.26B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.34B
6.37B
26.87B
-
-
- 1490765.0K
-
- 620569.00K
- 620569.00K
- 708847.00K
-
- 97644.00K
- 21088.00K
1.60B
769.64M
-
403.76M
1.51B
1.11B
254.69M
-
254.69M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$40.78
$30.40
$34.11
$38.26
$42.93