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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Agnc Investment Corp. (XNAS:AGNC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AGNC
Name:
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNC)
Sector:
371.00K
Industry:
REIT�Mortgage
CEO:
Mr. Gary Kain
Total Employees:
50
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -16.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AGNC INVESTMENT CORP.(AGNC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�MORTGAGE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.77
One Month Price Target:
$11.84
Six Month Price Target :
$12.19
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$12.61
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.72
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.81
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$11.24
This week:
$10.59
This month :
$9.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.14B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
522.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.51%
-19.7%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.22
$13.12
$9.32
$10.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$12.52
$10.78
$11.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AGNC
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.89%
Comparison:
AGNC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 270.47% higher than the industry
& is -183.07% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AGNC
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.16%
Monthly returns:
-0.64%
Yearly returns:
-0.12%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 6450.56% above industry average
Classification:
AGNC, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
AGNC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.17%
Weekly Volatility:
4.85%
Monthly Volatility:
9.69%
Yearly Volatility:
33.58%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.34%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -38.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.48%
Weekly VaR:
-10.03%
Monthly VaR:
-20.05%
How Much Can the price of
AGNC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-18%
Worst case (decline):
-69.46%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.64
This translates to price declining to:
$3.59
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AGNC is a 41.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 21.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.63% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AGNC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.07
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.963
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.362
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.555
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.557
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.191
Beta is -10.49% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.365
Beta is -21.87% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.182
Alpha is 44.09% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1157% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AGNC
Equity cost of capital:
0.105
Equity cost of capital is -16.36% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
62.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
49.72%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
49.72%
WACC is -8.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-$1.52
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.69
Annual revenue growth rate is 304.32% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.86
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.70%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -6009.59% lower than the REIT�Mortgage industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.05
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -29.39%
Equity growth rate per share is 44.88% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.22
EBITDA per share
-$1.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
AGNC
P/E Ratio:
9.36
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
114.36
P/E ratio is -91.82% lower than main peers & is 0.98% higher than the industry
-
AGNC is -168.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.87
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $4.59
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
-7.77
Price to sales ratio is -242.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.69
Price to free cash flow: 5.75
Price to free cash flow ratio is 14.76% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
364.31%
Net income growth rate is -53.97% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -0.02%
Dividend yeild: 4.08%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.12
2022-04-28--$0.12
2022-02-25--$0.12
2022-05-27--$0.12
2022-03-30--$0.12
2022-01-28--$0.12
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.30%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.94%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.17%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.73% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-11.01
Interest coverage ratio is -10899.89% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-64.41%
Annual debt growth is 8398% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.553
Statistical significance of correlation:
AGNC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.543
Stock price is 1.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.543
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
20.774
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.751
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AGNC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-102%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.29%
Operating profit margin is -93.92% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-102%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-9.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is -180.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-1.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -112.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
536.69
Current ratio is 199.86% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.00%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
- 15840.0K
Each employee generates -1311% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 16081.6K
Each employee generates -188% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 17540.0K
Each employee generates -204% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
7.4K
Each employee generates -100% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
10.5M
Each employee generates -100% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AGNC
FirstService Corp (XNAS:FSV)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCN)
BROOKFIEL PPTY PRT SRS 2 CM CL A UNT (XNAS:BPYPO)
OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:OPEN)
BROOKFIELD PROPERTY PARTNERS L.P. (XNAS:BPYPN)
AGNC INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:AGNCP)
Colliers International Group Inc. (XNAS:CIGI)
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (XNAS:GLPI)
CYRUSONE INC. (XNAS:CONE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�29%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
- 792000.00K
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
13.00M
- 643000.00K
-
51.00M
51.00M
-
8.00M
21.00M
1.28B
73.00M
- 78.00K
- 804078.00K
- 34000.00K
- 877000.00K
- 877000.00K
-
- 877000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
- 78.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
- 6.00K
Change in Working Capital :
1.11M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
371.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 6519.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.00B
2.32B
3.32B
2.32B
-
- 2317000.00K
3.32B
-
526.00M
-
49.77B
-
- 49771000.00K
526.00M
63.60B
66.39B
743.00M
-
-
-
-
-
116.00M
-
116.00M
57.58B
57.46B
5.00M
- 6078000.00K
- 190000.0K
13.70B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
34.00M
8.93B
66.39B
52.09B
116.00M
- 888000.0K
5.31M
4.29M
3.08M
- 7.00K
-
-
- 213.00K
- 2666.00K
- 2886.00K
-
- 1522909.00K
2.09M
1.53B
371.00K
-
371.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AGNC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$12.65
$13.56
$14.53
$15.57
$16.68