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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Agenus Inc. (XNAS:AGEN) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AGEN
Name:
AGENUS INC. (XNAS:AGEN)
Sector:
- 56935.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
DR. Garo Armen
Total Employees:
441
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -27.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AGENUS INC.(AGEN) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
2.57
One Month Price Target:
$2.59
Six Month Price Target :
$2.67
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$2.77
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$2.55
Price Upper limit ($) :
$2.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.32
This week:
$2.01
This month :
$1.44
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
654.06M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
270.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.51%
-21.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$3.74
$3.21
$1.40
$1.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$3.03
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2.92
$2.11
$2.22
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AGEN
Sharpe Ratio:
0.91%
Comparison:
AGEN, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -53.10% lower than the industry
& is -59.99% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AGEN
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -49.84% below industry average
Classification:
AGEN, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
AGEN has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.81%
Weekly Volatility:
10.76%
Monthly Volatility:
21.51%
Yearly Volatility:
74.52%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -28.78% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.83%
Weekly VaR:
-21.97%
Monthly VaR:
-43.95%
How Much Can the price of
AGEN
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.59
This translates to price declining to:
$0.39
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AGEN is a 210.17% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 165.73% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.18% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AGEN
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.15
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.895
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.265
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.081
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.657
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.879
Beta is 30.70% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -0.20% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.016
Alpha is -88.51% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 104% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AGEN
Equity cost of capital:
0.110
Equity cost of capital is -0.15% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
75.34%
After-tax cost of debt:
59.52%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
59.52%
WACC is 99.47% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
25.12
Annual revenue growth rate is -27.35% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-48.39%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -584.84% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.01
-
-
Debt per share
$0.18
EBITDA per share
$0.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
AGEN
P/E Ratio:
23.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
67.25
P/E ratio is -65.32% lower than main peers & is -74.01% lower than the industry
-
AGEN is -131.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.24
Price to sales ratio is -94.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
25.12
Price to free cash flow: 371.37
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-88.45%
Net income growth rate is -225.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
301.72%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1166.79%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-41.56%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
0.66
Interest coverage ratio is -100.55% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
165.71%
Annual debt growth is 23% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.28%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.342
Statistical significance of correlation:
AGEN has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 0.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.064
Kurtosis
5.082
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.007
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AGEN
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-827%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.22%
Operating profit margin is -102.38% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-827%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-148.70%
Return on equity (ROE) is 159.35% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.30%
Return on assets (ROA) is -74.04% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.78
Current ratio is -77.99% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-84.1
Cash conversion cycle is -115.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-21.35%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
702.7K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
72.1K
Each employee generates -81% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 53.0K
Each employee generates -141% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 129.1K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
342.0K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 271.38%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -7664.36% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AGEN
JANUX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:JANX)
VAXART, INC. (XNAS:VXRT)
ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:ALXO)
THE JOINT CORP. (XNAS:JYNT)
Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. (XNAS:KNSA)
Immatics NV (XNAS:IMTX)
CARIBOU BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CRBU)
CHINOOK THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KDNY)
SIGHT SCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:SGHT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
309.89M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
257.16M
52.73M
242.85M
- 73758.00K
- 73758.00K
-
1.57M
170.66M
-
48.46M
6.72M
31.80M
31.66M
- 23372.00K
- 24925.00K
-
- 23372.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.66M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.99M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5222.00K
Accounts Receivables:
135.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.37M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3216.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 52391.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 4544.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 3002.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4987.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
247.71M
14.98M
262.69M
1.29M
-
26.51M
290.48M
105.92M
24.62M
7.75M
-
-
12.53M
150.82M
-
441.31M
34.54M
16.89M
-
13.53M
98.10M
163.06M
47.42M
194.48M
250.59M
-
413.66M
2.67M
- 1538158.00K
970.0K
1.55B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
264.19M
15.72M
429.37M
-
64.31M
- 183396.0K
5.00M
-
- 7533.00K
- 132.00K
19.18M
- 3380.00K
-
368.00K
16.04M
- 336.00K
- 44222.00K
250.38M
294.60M
- 52391.00K
- 4544.00K
- 56935.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AGEN
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$2.78
$1.48
$1.59
$1.71
$1.85