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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Agco Corporation (XNYS:AGCO) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AGCO
Name:
AGCO CORPORATION (XNYS:AGCO)
Sector:
- 642800.00K
Industry:
Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
CEO:
Prof. Dr. Martin Richenhagen
Total Employees:
23,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -20.72% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AGCO CORPORATION(AGCO) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM & HEAVY CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
106.85
One Month Price Target:
$107.66
Six Month Price Target :
$111.72
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$116.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$106.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$107.47
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$100.59
This week:
$92.84
This month :
$78.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.97B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
74.60M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.02%
-18.78%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$135.90
$122.48
$77.80
$91.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$118.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$115.24
$95.56
$98.46
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AGCO
Sharpe Ratio:
2.82%
Comparison:
AGCO, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 38.31% higher than the industry
& ratio is 23.60% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AGCO
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.45%
Monthly returns:
1.81%
Yearly returns:
21.02%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3.32% above industry average
Classification:
AGCO, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.9
Statistical test of Returns:
AGCO has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.90%
Weekly Volatility:
6.48%
Monthly Volatility:
12.96%
Yearly Volatility:
44.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.02%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.86%
Weekly VaR:
-13.11%
Monthly VaR:
-26.22%
How Much Can the price of
AGCO
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-90.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$83.19
This translates to price declining to:
$9.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AGCO is a 85.04% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.52% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.98% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AGCO
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.749
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.059
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.918
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.812
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.783
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.339
Beta is 1.33% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.134
Beta is 19.68% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.13%
Sustainable growth rate is -10.65% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.093
Alpha is -8.22% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 590% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AGCO
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is 14.00% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.42%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.14%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.14%
WACC is -2.02% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$153.43
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 191.99% above the industry average
EPS:
$11.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
93.33%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1058.84% higher than the Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.96
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 699.71%
Equity growth rate per share is 642.28% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$27.15
EBITDA per share
$17.51
Valuation Analysis Today of
AGCO
P/E Ratio:
10.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
36.54
P/E ratio is -72.25% lower than main peers & is -60.75% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $307.12
AGCO is -65.21% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.7
Price to sales ratio is -61.84% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.17
Price to free cash flow: 54.50
Price to free cash flow ratio is -39.43% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
230.10%
Net income growth rate is 367.16% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.66%
Dividend yeild: 4.77%
Previous Dividend: $4.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $4.50
Previous Dividend: $5.10
Expected next dividend best case: $5.88
Expected next dividend worst case: $3.12
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.92
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 405.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 21/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$4.50
2021-11-12--$0.20
2021-05-13--$0.20
2022-02-14--$0.20
2021-08-13--$0.20
2021-05-07--$4.00
Dividend growth rate is 479.00% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
55.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
39.86%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.51%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.21% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
343.76
Interest coverage ratio is 1200.85% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.20%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 18.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.607
Statistical significance of correlation:
AGCO has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.555
Stock price is 9.41% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.555
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.024
Kurtosis
7.222
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.064
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AGCO
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
92%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.83%
Operating profit margin is -269.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
92%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.16%
Effective tax rate is -79.59% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
24.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is 66.86% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 96.42% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -33.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
13.8
Cash conversion cycle is -71.54% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.78%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
491.2K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
56.1K
Each employee generates -187% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.5K
Each employee generates -143% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 27.6K
Each employee generates -949% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
182.0K
Each employee generates -949% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AGCO
OWENS CORNING (XNYS:OC)
ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNYS:WMS)
SITEONE LANDSCAPE SUPPLY, INC. (XNYS:SITE)
GXO LOGISTICS, INC. (XNYS:GXO)
ITT INC. (XNYS:ITT)
DTE ENERGY UNT (XNYS:DTP)
DUN & BRADSTREET HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:DNB)
Vertiv Holdings Co (XNYS:VRT)
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:KNX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�50%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
11.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
8.81B
2.63B
409.80M
-
1.10B
-
58.90M
1.57B
100.00K
3.80M
279.50M
1.31B
1.01B
898.00M
950.10M
125.00M
898.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
70.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 5000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 801600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
16.10M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 576500.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 66300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 62000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
655.70M
-
655.70M
1.11B
3.26B
613.40M
5.64B
1.63B
1.30B
396.80M
423.20M
186.40M
300.90M
4.24B
-
9.88B
1.28B
95.30M
-
-
2.06B
3.44B
2.03B
627.60M
2.77B
-
6.20B
700.00K
5.31B
- 1635000.0K
2.90M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.38B
3.67B
9.88B
-
2.12B
1.5B
-
300.00K
- 128000.00K
- 459100.00K
-
-
- 14900.00K
953.10M
479.10M
- 8000.00K
- 233400.00K
655.70M
889.10M
- 576500.00K
- 66300.00K
- 642800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AGCO
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$117.17
$372.19
$406.13
$443.17
$483.58