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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Aerovironment, Inc. (XNAS:AVAV) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AVAV
Name:
AEROVIRONMENT, INC. (XNAS:AVAV)
Sector:
- 20732.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Wahid Nawabi
Total Employees:
1,214
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 168.29% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AEROVIRONMENT, INC.(AVAV) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
82.91
One Month Price Target:
$83.14
Six Month Price Target :
$84.31
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$85.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$82.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$83.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$77.04
This week:
$69.79
This month :
$56.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.19B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.99M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.28%
-27.48%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$110.12
$97.56
$55.70
$68.26
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$93.47
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$90.79
$72.32
$75.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AVAV
Sharpe Ratio:
2.70%
Comparison:
AVAV, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 149.24% higher than the industry
& ratio is 18.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AVAV
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.52%
Monthly returns:
2.07%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 137.55% above industry average
Classification:
AVAV, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.57
Statistical test of Returns:
AVAV has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.50%
Weekly Volatility:
7.82%
Monthly Volatility:
15.63%
Yearly Volatility:
54.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -30.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.07%
Weekly VaR:
-15.82%
Monthly VaR:
-31.64%
How Much Can the price of
AVAV
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.70
This translates to price declining to:
$12.44
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AVAV is a 123.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 91.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 10.68% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AVAV
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.50
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.57
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.806
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.435
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.834
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.699
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.509
Beta is -66.60% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -49.95% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.182
Alpha is 4512.41% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1159% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AVAV
Equity cost of capital:
0.066
Equity cost of capital is -34.29% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.08%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.08%
WACC is -37.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.05% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.17
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$8.33
EBITDA per share
$0.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
AVAV
P/E Ratio:
110.66
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.03
P/E ratio is 590.27% higher than main peers & is 135.49% higher than the industry
-
AVAV is -1137.84% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.15
Price to sales ratio is -35.29% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.46
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is 316.33% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
13.46%
Net income growth rate is 344.68% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
21.90%
Debt to assets ratio:
22.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
14.42%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-77.05
Interest coverage ratio is -1026.42% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2081.23%
Annual debt growth is 2171% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.19%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.441
Statistical significance of correlation:
AVAV has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -18.56% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.037
Kurtosis
15.15
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.412
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AVAV
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-2.94%
Operating profit margin is -99.41% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Effective Tax Rate:
54.17%
Effective tax rate is 128.25% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-0.74%
Return on equity (ROE) is -109.29% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.48%
Return on assets (ROA) is -111.35% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
4.17
Current ratio is 31.80% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51.7
Cash conversion cycle is -91.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-43.64%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
277.4K
Each employee generates -19% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
14.9K
Each employee generates -60% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.6K
Each employee generates -156% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 17.1K
Each employee generates 636% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
464.3K
Each employee generates 636% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 15.68%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -9124.29% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AVAV
GIBRALTAR INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:ROCK)
FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (XNAS:FWRD)
FUELCELL ENERGY, INC. (XNAS:FCEL)
CRYOPORT, INC. (XNAS:CYRX)
HUB GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HUBG)
SKYWEST, INC. (XNAS:SKYW)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
Central North Airport Group (XNAS:OMAB)
VERRA MOBILITY CORPORATION (XNAS:VRRM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
336.76M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
199.33M
137.43M
54.69M
-
96.43M
-
-
151.12M
-
- 234.00K
30.05M
18.03M
- 9887.00K
- 4404.00K
- 19143.00K
- 10369.00K
- 4404.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.65M
Differed Income Tax :
- 472.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.92M
Change in Working Capital :
- 19953.00K
Accounts Receivables:
17.91M
Other Working Capital:
262.26M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.53M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 15304.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 5428.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 48842.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
93.92M
17.95M
111.88M
133.22M
84.85M
14.97M
344.92M
94.21M
335.03M
117.86M
10.17M
2.53M
3.84M
563.64M
-
908.55M
18.05M
16.75M
549.00K
9.12M
38.75M
82.66M
208.19M
13.85M
227.58M
-
310.24M
2.00K
337.44M
- 394.0K
261.19M
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
314.85M
598.24M
908.48M
28.12M
224.94M
131.0M
17.93M
-
- 36345.00K
- 2500.00K
-
-
-
- 7056.00K
- 9556.00K
- 111.00K
- 61316.00K
95.75M
157.06M
- 15304.00K
- 5428.00K
- 20732.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AVAV
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$69.62
$71.98
$74.42
$76.94
$79.54