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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (XNAS:AEIS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AEIS
Name:
ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:AEIS)
Sector:
- 3254.00K
Industry:
Electrical Equipment & Parts
CEO:
Mr. Yuval Wasserman
Total Employees:
10,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -59.19% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC.(AEIS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT & PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
86.59
One Month Price Target:
$87.36
Six Month Price Target :
$91.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$95.84
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$86.17
Price Upper limit ($) :
$87.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$80.56
This week:
$73.1
This month :
$59.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.22B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.22%
-22.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.57
$101.66
$58.61
$71.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$97.46
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$94.71
$75.68
$78.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AEIS
Sharpe Ratio:
2.55%
Comparison:
AEIS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -30.15% lower than the industry
& ratio is 11.67% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AEIS
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.48%
Monthly returns:
1.93%
Yearly returns:
41.50%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -44.27% below industry average
Classification:
AEIS, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
AEIS has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.44%
Weekly Volatility:
7.69%
Monthly Volatility:
15.38%
Yearly Volatility:
53.27%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.59%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -53.82% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.97%
Weekly VaR:
-15.58%
Monthly VaR:
-31.15%
How Much Can the price of
AEIS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$63.69
This translates to price declining to:
$12.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AEIS is a 119.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 88.36% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.08% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AEIS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.859
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.215
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.089
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.954
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.065
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.321
Beta is 20.28% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.797
Beta is -11.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.91%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.11% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.091
Alpha is -65.08% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 579% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AEIS
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is -9.21% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.61%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$40.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.59
Annual revenue growth rate is 316.25% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.49
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
27.34%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -41.92% lower than the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.68
-
-
Debt per share
$12.39
EBITDA per share
$5.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
AEIS
P/E Ratio:
23.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
41.35
P/E ratio is -44.34% lower than main peers & is 23.56% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $65.01
AEIS is 33.20% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $13.66
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $2.85
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.15
Price to sales ratio is -76.60% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.59
Price to free cash flow: 51.62
Price to free cash flow ratio is 19.60% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-6.10%
Net income growth rate is -101.51% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 2.85%
Dividend yeild: 0.46%
Previous Dividend: $0.10
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.10
Previous Dividend: $0.40
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.10
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 22/08/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 06/03/2022
Previous dividend record date: 23/05/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-05-20--$0.10
2021-11-19--$0.10
2021-05-21--$0.10
2022-02-17--$0.10
2021-08-20--$0.10
2021-02-19--$0.10
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
51.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-2.50%
Debt to assets ratio:
25.27%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.23%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -43.28% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
20.65%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.529
Statistical significance of correlation:
AEIS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is -7.08% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.036
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.072
Kurtosis
6.109
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.281
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AEIS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.13%
Operating profit margin is -122.39% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
144%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.53%
Effective tax rate is -49.65% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.75%
Return on equity (ROE) is 46.70% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.25%
Return on assets (ROA) is 51.41% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
3.23
Current ratio is -15.96% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
15.9
Cash conversion cycle is -76.79% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.96%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
150.2K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
20.3K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.3K
Each employee generates -66% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.3K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
65.8K
Each employee generates -99% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 12.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -173.33% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
AEIS
ALTRA INDUSTRIAL MOTION CORP. (XNAS:AIMC)
BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS INC. (XNAS:BLDP)
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY (XNAS:ALGT)
HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:HLIO)
FORWARD AIR CORPORATION (XNAS:FWRD)
RENT-A-CENTER, INC. (XNAS:RCII)
WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:WERN)
FRONTIER GROUP HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULCC)
51job, Inc. (XNAS:JOBS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.50B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
962.66M
539.14M
165.28M
-
194.59M
-
22.19M
382.05M
-
-
54.06M
202.58M
152.16M
132.85M
148.85M
15.67M
132.85M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.89M
Differed Income Tax :
- 1060.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.93M
Change in Working Capital :
- 43981.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 12579.00K
Other Working Capital:
7.71M
Other Non-Cash Items:
184.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 13075.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
521.24M
2.28M
523.52M
248.73M
360.80M
41.43M
1.17B
218.87M
211.49M
153.61M
-
46.73M
27.18M
657.88M
-
1.83B
183.09M
35.72M
15.63M
29.64M
114.95M
363.40M
462.99M
95.31M
567.64M
-
931.04M
38.00K
782.97M
750.0K
116.93M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.34B
900.69M
1.83B
-
498.71M
- 22527.0K
-
-
- 13675.00K
- 5000.00K
-
- 6594.00K
- 3789.00K
- 2430.00K
- 17813.00K
- 1469.00K
- 23136.00K
521.24M
544.37M
9.82M
- 13075.00K
- 3254.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AEIS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.32
$145.45
$160.98
$178.17
$197.20