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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Addus Homecare Corporation (XNAS:ADUS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ADUS
Name:
ADDUS HOMECARE CORPORATION (XNAS:ADUS)
Sector:
4.88M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Mr. R. Dirk Allison
Total Employees:
5,416
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 361.49% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ADDUS HOMECARE CORPORATION(ADUS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
87.92
One Month Price Target:
$88.34
Six Month Price Target :
$90.45
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$92.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.44
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$82.17
This week:
$75.07
This month :
$62.21
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
35.48%
-18.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.60
$102.39
$61.24
$73.45
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.41
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.81
$77.39
$80.03
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ADUS
Sharpe Ratio:
1.03%
Comparison:
ADUS, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -53.80% lower than the industry
& is -54.94% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ADUS
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.21%
Monthly returns:
0.84%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -56.45% below industry average
Classification:
ADUS, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
ADUS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.20%
Weekly Volatility:
7.16%
Monthly Volatility:
14.33%
Yearly Volatility:
49.63%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.54%
Weekly VaR:
-14.62%
Monthly VaR:
-29.24%
How Much Can the price of
ADUS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$65.61
This translates to price declining to:
$13.19
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ADUS is a 106.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.79% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.97% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ADUS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.633
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.895
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.627
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.497
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.528
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.292
Beta is -33.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is -19.65% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.54%
Sustainable growth rate is -79.06% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.010
Alpha is -92.05% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 64% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ADUS
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is -13.74% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.66%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.66%
WACC is -5.97% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$55.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.41
Annual revenue growth rate is -15.32% below industry average
EPS:
$2.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.37%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 14.18% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.68
-
-
Debt per share
$18.36
EBITDA per share
$5.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
ADUS
P/E Ratio:
31.87
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.44
P/E ratio is -1.76% lower than main peers & is -54.71% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $195.61
ADUS is -55.05% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.6
Price to sales ratio is -24.63% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.41
Price to free cash flow: 23.90
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
113.83%
Net income growth rate is -25.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
50.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.90%
Net debt to assets ratio:
18.35%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -44.60% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.79
Interest coverage ratio is -35.76% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
9.96%
Annual debt growth is -90% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.31
Statistical significance of correlation:
ADUS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is -28.31% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.058
Kurtosis
26.286
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.051
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ADUS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.60%
Operating profit margin is -206.33% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
126%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.93%
Effective tax rate is 23.35% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.63%
Return on equity (ROE) is -57.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.53%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.66% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
2.65
Current ratio is 43.79% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
45.9
Cash conversion cycle is 69.88% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
163.6K
Each employee generates -53% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
15.1K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
8.3K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.9K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
131.3K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ADUS
REGENXBIO INC. (XNAS:RGNX)
ALLOVIR, INC. (XNAS:ALVR)
SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:SUPN)
HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HRTX)
KRYSTAL BIOTECH, INC. (XNAS:KRYS)
PMV PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:PMVP)
PULMONX CORPORATION (XNAS:LUNG)
BIOATLA, INC. (XNAS:BCAB)
HARMONY BIOSCIENCES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HRMY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�0%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
885.83M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
606.99M
278.84M
-
197.14M
197.14M
-
14.41M
211.56M
304.00K
6.41M
14.41M
82.00M
67.28M
44.70M
61.17M
16.47M
44.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.52M
Differed Income Tax :
126.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
2.49M
Change in Working Capital :
- 10166.00K
Accounts Receivables:
7.12M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.55M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.98M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1104.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 84490.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
124.76M
-
124.76M
142.21M
-
9.25M
276.23M
60.60M
574.09M
76.30M
-
-
-
710.98M
-
987.21M
21.00M
10.77M
-
-
72.59M
104.36M
295.18M
1.90M
297.08M
-
401.43M
16.00K
202.76M
-
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
818.55M
585.78M
987.21M
-
305.94M
181.2M
-
-
- 85594.00K
-
-
-
-
35.48M
35.48M
-
- 44132.00K
124.76M
168.90M
5.98M
- 1104.00K
4.88M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ADUS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$109.68
$116.00
$122.69
$129.76
$137.23