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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Acuity Brands, Inc. (XNYS:AYI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AYI
Name:
ACUITY BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:AYI)
Sector:
74.40M
Industry:
Electrical Equipment & Parts
CEO:
Mr. Neil Ashe
Total Employees:
13,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -59.00% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ACUITY BRANDS, INC.(AYI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT & PARTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
160.15
One Month Price Target:
$161.57
Six Month Price Target :
$168.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$177.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$159.48
Price Upper limit ($) :
$161.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$150.77
This week:
$139.17
This month :
$118.2
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.24B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.22%
-17.96%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$203.67
$183.63
$116.63
$136.67
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.11
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$172.83
$143.13
$147.47
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AYI
Sharpe Ratio:
2.13%
Comparison:
AYI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -41.53% lower than the industry
& is -6.53% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AYI
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.35%
Monthly returns:
1.41%
Yearly returns:
41.50%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -59.32% below industry average
Classification:
AYI, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.25
Statistical test of Returns:
AYI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.89%
Weekly Volatility:
6.45%
Monthly Volatility:
12.91%
Yearly Volatility:
44.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.09% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.86%
Weekly VaR:
-13.10%
Monthly VaR:
-26.20%
How Much Can the price of
AYI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-90.75%
This translates to price declining to:
$124.34
This translates to price declining to:
$14.82
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AYI is a 84.89% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 58.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.00% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AYI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.914
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.292
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.32
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.827
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.88
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.321
Beta is 20.16% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.797
Beta is -11.71% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
15.63%
Sustainable growth rate is -13.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.029
Alpha is -89.00% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 182% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AYI
Equity cost of capital:
0.140
Equity cost of capital is -9.32% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.66%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.44%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.51%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.51%
WACC is -14.76% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$118.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.91% below industry average
EPS:
$10.39
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
5.21%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -88.93% lower than the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.92
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 0.56%
Equity growth rate per share is -103.32% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$16.46
EBITDA per share
$18.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
AYI
P/E Ratio:
15.41
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.42
P/E ratio is -49.34% lower than main peers & is -17.27% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $193.54
AYI is -17.25% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $3.71
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.35
Price to sales ratio is -85.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.53
Price to free cash flow: 27.03
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1.28%
Net income growth rate is -100.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.28%
Dividend yeild: 0.32%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.52
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.13
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 29/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 31/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-14--$0.13
2021-10-14--$0.13
2021-04-15--$0.13
2022-01-19--$0.13
2021-07-15--$0.13
2021-01-19--$0.13
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
25.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
2.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.94%
Net debt to assets ratio:
1.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.47% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.06
Interest coverage ratio is 372.27% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
17.22%
Annual debt growth is -98% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.624
Statistical significance of correlation:
AYI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 9.55% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
6.698
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.039
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AYI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.68%
Operating profit margin is -128.01% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
168%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.09%
Effective tax rate is 5.65% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is 75.96% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 112.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
2.3
Current ratio is -40.16% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0.6
Cash conversion cycle is -99.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
299.1K
Each employee generates -42% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
45.5K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
28.2K
Each employee generates -28% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -125% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
154.3K
Each employee generates -125% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AYI
NIELSEN HOLDINGS PLC (XNYS:NLSN)
DONALDSON COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:DCI)
HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNYS:HII)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
TOPBUILD CORP. (XNYS:BLD)
OSHKOSH CORPORATION (XNYS:OSK)
ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC. (XNYS:ALK)
MASTEC, INC. (XNYS:MTZ)
CAE Inc. (XNYS:CAE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�33%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
3.89B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.26B
1.63B
-
-
1.13B
579.40M
-
1.13B
1.00M
24.60M
96.50M
591.80M
492.90M
366.70M
470.70M
104.00M
366.70M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
24.30M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
7.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 35800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
40.20M
Other Working Capital:
- 4700.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
83.70M
Investments in PP&E:
- 9300.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
11/30/21
2022
Q1
504.00M
-
504.00M
529.30M
439.70M
126.90M
1.60B
315.70M
1.09B
561.80M
-
1.90M
35.30M
2.01B
-
3.61B
409.30M
15.60M
5.70M
8.90M
261.40M
695.20M
538.50M
97.80M
837.50M
-
1.53B
500.00K
2.89B
- 108900.0K
- 711900.00K
November 30, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
3.39B
2.07B
3.61B
-
554.10M
50.1M
-
300.00K
- 9000.00K
-
-
- 56300.00K
- 4700.00K
1.90M
- 59100.00K
- 2900.00K
12.70M
504.00M
491.30M
83.70M
- 9300.00K
74.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AYI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$178.12
$261.17
$289.02
$319.84
$353.94