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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Acm Research, Inc. (XNAS:ACMR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACMR
Name:
ACM RESEARCH, INC. (XNAS:ACMR)
Sector:
- 31313.00K
Industry:
Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
CEO:
David Wang
Total Employees:
877
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -268.93% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ACM RESEARCH, INC.(ACMR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT & MATERIALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
15.97
One Month Price Target:
$16.03
Six Month Price Target :
$16.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$16.66
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$15.86
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.18
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$14.1
This week:
$11.79
This month :
$7.61
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
913.91M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
59.27M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.22%
-28.19%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.63
$20.57
$7.31
$11.37
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.39
$12.68
$13.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACMR
Sharpe Ratio:
5.54%
Comparison:
ACMR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 99.82% higher than the industry
& ratio is 143.21% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACMR
Daily returns:
0.33%
Weekly returns:
1.67%
Monthly returns:
6.68%
Yearly returns:
28.31%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 183.06% above industry average
Classification:
ACMR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.26
Statistical test of Returns:
ACMR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.86%
Weekly Volatility:
13.11%
Monthly Volatility:
26.22%
Yearly Volatility:
90.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.39% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.71%
Weekly VaR:
-26.18%
Monthly VaR:
-52.36%
How Much Can the price of
ACMR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-42%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.19
This translates to price declining to:
$2.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACMR is a 269.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 216.59% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 56.54% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACMR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.64
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.621
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.879
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.621
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.625
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.854
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.289
Beta is -50.04% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.394
Beta is -53.80% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.72%
Sustainable growth rate is -23.38% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.726
Alpha is 364.94% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 4620% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACMR
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -40.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.29%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.18%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.72%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.72%
WACC is -30.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$4.36
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.17
Annual revenue growth rate is 253.20% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
66.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 114.73% higher than the Semiconductor Equipment & Materials industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.41
EBITDA per share
$0.49
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACMR
P/E Ratio:
73.65
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.19
P/E ratio is 128.78% higher than main peers & is 156.62% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $16.93
ACMR is -5.69% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.67
Price to sales ratio is -42.73% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.17
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
397.33%
Net income growth rate is -41.91% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.60%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-50.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-31.44%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -95.52% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
34.95
Interest coverage ratio is 79.66% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.11%
Annual debt growth is -2244% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.78%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.408
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACMR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -32.44% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.075
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.256
Kurtosis
3.315
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
0.181
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACMR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
179%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.05%
Operating profit margin is -323.86% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
179%
Effective Tax Rate:
-3.88%
Effective tax rate is -129.81% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.36% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -71.75% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
3.7
Current ratio is -15.64% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
55.2
Cash conversion cycle is -5.29% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
294.4K
Each employee generates -50% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
33.4K
Each employee generates -80% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
30.2K
Each employee generates -72% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 35.7K
Each employee generates -307% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
208.0K
Each employee generates -307% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 78.92%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 233.43% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACMR
GROUPON, INC. (XNAS:GRPN)
Materialise NV (XNAS:MTLS)
EXTREME NETWORKS, INC. (XNAS:EXTR)
CSG SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CSGS)
EPLUS INC. (XNAS:PLUS)
AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:ACLS)
QADA
FORMULA SYSTEMS (1985) LTD (XNAS:FORTY)
CAMBIUM NETWORKS CORPORATION (XNAS:CMBM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
258.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
141.71M
116.50M
46.05M
16.38M
44.50M
28.12M
-
90.55M
2.26M
837.00K
3.02M
29.25M
25.95M
26.50M
28.55M
- 1107.00K
26.50M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.21M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2081.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
1.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 24721.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 284.00K
Other Working Capital:
31.97M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.93M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 27729.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 3176.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 152775.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
380.31M
99.80M
480.11M
131.56M
271.54M
21.77M
904.98M
63.59M
-
11.19M
91.42M
15.30M
906.00K
182.40M
-
1.09B
108.49M
14.12M
- 1744.00K
84.74M
37.10M
244.45M
24.30M
8.55M
34.15M
-
278.60M
6.00K
66.26M
11.0M
597.14M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
232.26M
674.39M
952.98M
191.21M
38.41M
- 341898.0K
-
- 408.00K
- 156359.00K
- 696.00K
-
-
-
724.00K
28.00K
1.30M
- 182756.00K
380.31M
563.07M
- 27729.00K
- 3584.00K
- 31313.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACMR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$16.74
$38.02
$39.66
$41.38
$43.17