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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Aci Worldwide, Inc. (XNAS:ACIW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACIW
Name:
ACI WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:ACIW)
Sector:
20.39M
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Odilon Almeida
Total Employees:
3,610
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -108.42% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ACI WORLDWIDE, INC.(ACIW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.65
One Month Price Target:
$22.79
Six Month Price Target :
$23.49
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.33
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.74
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.41
This week:
$19.89
This month :
$17.12
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.58B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
114.05M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.65%
-16.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.39
$25.80
$16.91
$19.50
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.96
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.40
$20.34
$20.90
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACIW
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.62%
Comparison:
ACIW, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -199.04% lower than the industry
& is -171.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACIW
Daily returns:
-0.03%
Weekly returns:
-0.17%
Monthly returns:
-0.68%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -156.60% below industry average
Classification:
ACIW, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
ACIW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.64%
Weekly Volatility:
5.91%
Monthly Volatility:
11.81%
Yearly Volatility:
40.92%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.52%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -80.14% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.46%
Weekly VaR:
-12.21%
Monthly VaR:
-24.41%
How Much Can the price of
ACIW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-84.56%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.67
This translates to price declining to:
$3.50
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACIW is a 72.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.60% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.73% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACIW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.10
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.709
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.003
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.677
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.576
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.772
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.09
Beta is 1.08% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is -0.86% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.15%
Sustainable growth rate is -98.06% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.188
Alpha is -620.79% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1199% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACIW
Equity cost of capital:
0.107
Equity cost of capital is -0.61% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.57%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.90%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.08%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.08%
WACC is 6.06% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.35
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -51.54% below industry average
EPS:
$1.23
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
23.03%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -23.56% lower than the Software�Infrastructure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.20
-
-
Debt per share
$9.45
EBITDA per share
$3.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACIW
P/E Ratio:
17.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
890.88
P/E ratio is -98.03% lower than main peers & is -73.13% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $80.24
ACIW is -71.77% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.83
Price to sales ratio is -83.30% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.11
Price to free cash flow: 18.94
Price to free cash flow ratio is -56.55% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
84.88%
Net income growth rate is -99.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
88.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
83.81%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.58%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.97%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.77
Interest coverage ratio is -104.16% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-4.09%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.17%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.466
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACIW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is -2.85% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.014
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
6.016
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.232
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACIW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.60%
Operating profit margin is -239.90% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
211%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.66%
Effective tax rate is -8.53% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -88.89% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -219.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.24
Current ratio is -46.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
61.7
Cash conversion cycle is -45.18% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
390.2K
Each employee generates -1% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
108.1K
Each employee generates 65% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
40.2K
Each employee generates 92% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.6K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
609.6K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 3.60%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -238.90% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACIW
Sprout Social Inc (XNAS:SPT)
TTEC Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:TTEC)
VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC. (XNAS:VIAV)
AVNET, INC. (XNAS:AVT)
ALARM.COM HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ALRM)
APPFOLIO, INC. (XNAS:APPF)
FEYE
Jamf Holding Corp. (XNAS:JAMF)
DUOLINGO, INC. (XNAS:DUOL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.41B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
645.67M
762.82M
147.60M
121.90M
254.91M
133.01M
126.43M
528.95M
11.83M
44.48M
142.19M
390.22M
233.87M
145.23M
203.56M
58.33M
145.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.21M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3367.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
7.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 27166.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 34078.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.75M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
28.87M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2280.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
114.75M
-
114.75M
310.78M
-
584.20M
1.01B
107.93M
1.28B
420.48M
-
51.24M
340.84M
2.20B
-
3.21B
38.93M
63.00M
-
92.52M
619.16M
813.61M
1.08B
33.76M
1.17B
-
1.99B
702.00K
1.15B
- 101647.0K
178.84M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.17B
1.22B
3.21B
-
1.14B
1.0B
-
- 6207.00K
- 8487.00K
- 23924.00K
906.00K
- 37860.00K
-
34.88M
- 25998.00K
- 2464.00K
- 8075.00K
176.07M
184.14M
28.87M
- 8487.00K
20.39M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACIW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.45
$385.44
$413.99
$444.66
$477.59