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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (XNAS:ACAD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACAD
Name:
ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC. (XNAS:ACAD)
Sector:
- 76329.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Stephen Davis
Total Employees:
540
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -48.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC.(ACAD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
16.73
One Month Price Target:
$16.79
Six Month Price Target :
$17.1
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.47
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$16.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$16.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.35
This week:
$13.65
This month :
$10.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.61B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
161.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.51%
-45.35%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.13
$20.22
$10.33
$13.24
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$19.27
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.65
$14.18
$14.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACAD
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.15%
Comparison:
ACAD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -107.63% lower than the industry
& is -106.51% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACAD
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.06%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -97.25% below industry average
Classification:
ACAD, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.72
Statistical test of Returns:
ACAD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.02%
Weekly Volatility:
8.98%
Monthly Volatility:
17.96%
Yearly Volatility:
62.21%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.27%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.58% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.24%
Weekly VaR:
-18.44%
Monthly VaR:
-36.87%
How Much Can the price of
ACAD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.28
This translates to price declining to:
$2.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACAD is a 160.23% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 122.94% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -15.54% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACAD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.66
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.484
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.684
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.586
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.758
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.675
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.237
Beta is -46.73% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -42.78% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.070
Alpha is -149.14% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -444% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACAD
Equity cost of capital:
0.077
Equity cost of capital is -30.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.81%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.61%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.61%
WACC is -23.52% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.05
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.09
Annual revenue growth rate is -87.07% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.33
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-13.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -231.26% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.34
EBITDA per share
-$1.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACAD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
1593.04
-
-
ACAD is -114.02% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.49
Price to sales ratio is -86.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.09
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-44.92%
Net income growth rate is -163.64% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
12.47%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-31.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
8.89%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-22.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -78.92% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-423.79
Interest coverage ratio is 258.11% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
30.04%
Annual debt growth is -78% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.327
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACAD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -3.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
25.639
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-2.294
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACAD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
386%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-43.95%
Operating profit margin is -89.75% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
386%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.38%
Effective tax rate is -106.69% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-48.22%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-34.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is 68.40% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
4.53
Current ratio is -44.00% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-117.5
Cash conversion cycle is -122.05% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.98%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
913.1K
Each employee generates -43% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 389.3K
Each employee generates -201% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 397.2K
Each employee generates -410% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 141.4K
Each employee generates -196% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
151.9K
Each employee generates -196% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -24.98%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 596.24% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACAD
ARVINAS, INC. (XNAS:ARVN)
PACIFIC BIOSCIENCES OF CALIFORNIA, INC. (XNAS:PACB)
KARUNA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:KRTX)
INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC. (XNAS:ITCI)
Lifestance Health Group Inc (XNAS:LFST)
HEALTHEQUITY, INC. (XNAS:HQY)
NEOGENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:NEO)
Galapagos NV (XNAS:GLPG)
TWIST BIOSCIENCE CORPORATION (XNAS:TWST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�25%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
493.06M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
17.40M
475.66M
311.30M
96.79M
381.05M
-
-
692.34M
496.00K
496.00K
2.97M
- 210202.00K
- 216683.00K
- 214478.00K
- 213663.00K
815.00K
- 214478.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
516.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
14.96M
Change in Working Capital :
21.14M
Accounts Receivables:
1.65M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
108.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 76329.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
204.92M
241.06M
445.98M
63.48M
7.01M
25.76M
542.22M
65.72M
-
-
-
-
16.31M
82.03M
-
624.25M
10.77M
8.94M
-
-
99.89M
119.60M
55.48M
4.37M
59.85M
-
179.45M
16.00K
- 2266632.00K
- 612.0K
2.71B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
709.74M
444.80M
624.25M
-
64.42M
- 140498.0K
131.35M
-
131.35M
-
2.47M
-
-
-
2.47M
2.00K
57.49M
210.69M
153.21M
- 76329.00K
-
- 76329.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACAD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$17.52
$18.30
$19.11
$19.96
$20.84