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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (XNAS:ACHC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ACHC
Name:
ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC. (XNAS:ACHC)
Sector:
26.26M
Industry:
Medical Care Facilities
CEO:
Ms. Debra Osteen
Total Employees:
15,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -5615.80% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ACADIA HEALTHCARE COMPANY, INC.(ACHC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL CARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
80.11
One Month Price Target:
$80.69
Six Month Price Target :
$83.58
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$87.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.78
Price Upper limit ($) :
$80.76
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$74.33
This week:
$67.18
This month :
$54.25
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.28B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
90.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
30.96%
-21.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$106.91
$94.36
$53.31
$65.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$90.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$87.60
$69.90
$72.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ACHC
Sharpe Ratio:
5.29%
Comparison:
ACHC, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 137.72% higher than the industry
& ratio is 131.88% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ACHC
Daily returns:
0.20%
Weekly returns:
1.00%
Monthly returns:
4.00%
Yearly returns:
23.01%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 108.36% above industry average
Classification:
ACHC, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
ACHC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.61%
Weekly Volatility:
8.08%
Monthly Volatility:
16.16%
Yearly Volatility:
55.96%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.39%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.25% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.22%
Weekly VaR:
-16.14%
Monthly VaR:
-32.29%
How Much Can the price of
ACHC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$59.08
This translates to price declining to:
$12.02
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ACHC is a 127.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 95.22% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 8.28% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ACHC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.29
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.779
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.101
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.878
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.733
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.038
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.832
Beta is 54.77% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.067
Beta is 20.67% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.360
Alpha is 186.63% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2290% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ACHC
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is 14.44% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.16%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.09%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.09%
WACC is 25.18% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.75
Annual revenue growth rate is -153.94% below industry average
EPS:
$2.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.79%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 61.89% higher than the Medical Care Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.46
-
-
Debt per share
$17.44
EBITDA per share
$5.50
Valuation Analysis Today of
ACHC
P/E Ratio:
26.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
275.62
P/E ratio is -90.44% lower than main peers & is -62.56% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $187.16
ACHC is -57.20% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.06
Price to sales ratio is 44.41% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.75
Price to free cash flow: 54.72
Price to free cash flow ratio is -45.81% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-209.42%
Net income growth rate is -236.44% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
61.54%
Net debt to equity ratio:
57.93%
Debt to assets ratio:
32.77%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.85%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -39.28% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.84
Interest coverage ratio is -60.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-48.87%
Annual debt growth is -148% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.79%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.462
Statistical significance of correlation:
ACHC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.432
Stock price is 7.03% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.432
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.022
Kurtosis
18.6
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.328
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ACHC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
17.13%
Operating profit margin is -339.81% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
128%
Effective Tax Rate:
24.18%
Effective tax rate is 10.76% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
9.58%
Return on equity (ROE) is -46.28% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.10%
Return on assets (ROA) is 16.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
1.29
Current ratio is -29.89% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
8
Cash conversion cycle is -70.27% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.21%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
149.7K
Each employee generates -57% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
31.4K
Each employee generates -43% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.5K
Each employee generates -47% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.7K
Each employee generates -76% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
270.7K
Each employee generates -76% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
ACHC
DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:DNLI)
ULTRAGENYX PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:RARE)
QUIDELORTHO CORPORATION (XNAS:QDEL)
PREMIER, INC. (XNAS:PINC)
HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:HALO)
ICU MEDICAL, INC. (XNAS:ICUI)
AMEDISYS, INC. (XNAS:AMED)
ZAI LAB LIMITED (XNAS:ZLAB)
ABCAM PLC (XNAS:ABCM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�17%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.38B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.02B
762.18M
-
143.87M
143.87M
-
178.05M
321.92M
-
63.75M
110.75M
499.94M
407.64M
246.68M
325.75M
78.76M
246.68M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
28.93M
Differed Income Tax :
3.27M
Stock Based Compensation :
7.93M
Change in Working Capital :
- 25573.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 18222.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 7556.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
330.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
76.79M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
140.37M
-
140.37M
336.63M
4.77M
48.33M
530.10M
1.94B
2.20B
70.32M
-
3.05M
95.46M
4.30B
-
4.83B
104.21M
47.41M
8.26M
26.30M
232.83M
410.75M
1.58B
117.06M
1.78B
-
2.19B
897.00K
-
- 58914.0K
2.63B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.48B
2.57B
4.76B
-
1.63B
1.5B
-
- 49693.00K
- 49693.00K
- 12656.00K
-
- 11741.00K
-
3.86M
- 20540.00K
-
6.55M
140.37M
133.81M
76.79M
- 50527.00K
26.26M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ACHC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$87.48
$324.83
$352.94
$383.49
$416.67