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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Absci Corporation (XNAS:ABSI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ABSI
Name:
ABSCI CORPORATION (XNAS:ABSI)
Sector:
- 28006.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Total Employees:
216
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 48.93% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ABSCI CORPORATION(ABSI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
3.39
One Month Price Target:
$3.42
Six Month Price Target :
$3.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$3.69
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$3.32
Price Upper limit ($) :
$3.43
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$2.95
This week:
$2.4
This month :
$1.41
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
330.52M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
92.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.1%
-21.08%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$5.45
$4.55
$1.33
$2.23
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$4.25
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$4.06
$2.52
$2.72
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ABSI
Sharpe Ratio:
-7.70%
Comparison:
ABSI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -495.80% lower than the industry
& is -437.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ABSI
Daily returns:
-0.46%
Weekly returns:
-2.31%
Monthly returns:
-9.24%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -539.78% below industry average
Classification:
ABSI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.16
Statistical test of Returns:
ABSI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.12%
Weekly Volatility:
13.69%
Monthly Volatility:
27.37%
Yearly Volatility:
94.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-13.03%
Weekly VaR:
-29.14%
Monthly VaR:
-58.28%
How Much Can the price of
ABSI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-57%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$1.46
This translates to price declining to:
$0.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ABSI is a 311.37% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 252.42% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 28.74% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ABSI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.28
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.158
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.282
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
-
-
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 14.70% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-1.231
Alpha is -968.05% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -7838% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ABSI
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 10.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.82%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-20.27%
After-tax cost of debt:
-16.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-16.02%
WACC is 20.18% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.02
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.92
Annual revenue growth rate is -76.93% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.40
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
205.64%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1960.54% higher than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.12
EBITDA per share
-$1.31
Valuation Analysis Today of
ABSI
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
-
-
ABSI is -102.70% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
138.59
Price to sales ratio is 242.16% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.92
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1433.41%
Net income growth rate is 1930.83% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.38%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-61.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
2.91%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-52.54%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.10% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
33.02
Interest coverage ratio is -127.90% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-92.25%
Annual debt growth is -168% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.95%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.061
Statistical significance of correlation:
ABSI does not have a has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -82.13% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.039
Kurtosis
0.789
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.446
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ABSI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-916%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-4090.40%
Operating profit margin is 854.18% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-916%
Effective Tax Rate:
6.13%
Effective tax rate is 7.44% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-35.09%
Return on equity (ROE) is -38.79% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-30.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is 48.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.11
Current ratio is -24.50% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 168.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-3.13%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
10.5K
Each employee generates -99% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 564.4K
Each employee generates -246% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 553.2K
Each employee generates -532% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 129.7K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
645.8K
Each employee generates -188% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -64.98%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 1711.23% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ABSI
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.65M
- 7469.00K
12.79M
-
34.98M
-
43.01M
90.78M
-
- 3692.00K
9.08M
- 121901.00K
- 92893.00K
- 119492.00K
- 127293.00K
- 7801.00K
- 119492.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.91M
Differed Income Tax :
616.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.74M
Change in Working Capital :
333.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
1.35M
Other Non-Cash Items:
750.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 21149.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 6857.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
226.00M
-
226.00M
350.00K
-
29.61M
255.96M
60.88M
21.34M
54.15M
-
-
3.14M
139.50M
-
395.46M
6.74M
6.71M
-
2.79M
25.64M
41.88M
11.50M
222.00K
13.08M
-
54.96M
9.00K
- 220519.00K
- 23.0K
561.03M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
97.43M
340.50M
395.46M
-
18.21M
- 207792.0K
-
-
- 6857.00K
- 1271.00K
213.00K
-
-
-
- 1058.00K
-
- 29064.00K
250.86M
279.93M
- 21149.00K
- 6857.00K
- 28006.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ABSI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$3.69
$4.02
$4.37
$4.76
$5.19