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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Abiomed, Inc. (XNAS:ABMD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
ABMD
Name:
ABIOMED, INC. (XNAS:ABMD)
Sector:
48.19M
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Michael Minogue
Total Employees:
2,003
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 4833.36% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF ABIOMED, INC.(ABMD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
261.24
One Month Price Target:
$263.24
Six Month Price Target :
$273.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$285.26
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$260.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$262.67
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$247.03
This week:
$229.46
This month :
$197.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.98%
-11.09%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$327.16
$296.65
$195.32
$225.83
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$286.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$280.21
$235.67
$242.27
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
ABMD
Sharpe Ratio:
3.07%
Comparison:
ABMD, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 102.69% higher than the industry
& ratio is 34.69% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
ABMD
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.83%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 43.07% above industry average
Classification:
ABMD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
ABMD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.69%
Weekly Volatility:
6.02%
Monthly Volatility:
12.05%
Yearly Volatility:
41.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.29%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.38% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.44%
Weekly VaR:
-12.17%
Monthly VaR:
-24.33%
How Much Can the price of
ABMD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-84.29%
This translates to price declining to:
$207.77
This translates to price declining to:
$41.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
ABMD is a 71.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 47.13% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.20% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
ABMD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.37
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.051
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.486
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.267
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.827
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.416
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.847
Beta is 61.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is 28.48% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.76%
Sustainable growth rate is -25.10% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.095
Alpha is 92.34% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 602% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
ABMD
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 19.89% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.59%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$22.70
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
9.08
Annual revenue growth rate is -89.38% below industry average
EPS:
$2.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-20.49%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -276.96% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.33
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$4.86
Valuation Analysis Today of
ABMD
P/E Ratio:
55.14
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
169.52
P/E ratio is -67.47% lower than main peers & is -77.36% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $725.77
ABMD is -64.00% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.51
Price to sales ratio is 23.66% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
9.08
Price to free cash flow: 49.00
Price to free cash flow ratio is -17.57% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
96.66%
Net income growth rate is -0.48% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.16%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-13.42%
Debt to assets ratio:
10.04%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-12.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.08% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
22.66
Interest coverage ratio is 69.86% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.521
Statistical significance of correlation:
ABMD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 11.44% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.05
Kurtosis
1.944
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
-0.224
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
ABMD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
327%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.64%
Operating profit margin is -179.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
327%
Effective Tax Rate:
28.37%
Effective tax rate is -48.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is -206.48% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.36%
Return on assets (ROA) is -377.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
6.45
Current ratio is -0.20% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
12.7
Cash conversion cycle is -77.15% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 22.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
9.24%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
515.1K
Each employee generates 37% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
110.4K
Each employee generates 1665% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
68.2K
Each employee generates -329% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
24.1K
Each employee generates -269% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
363.7K
Each employee generates -269% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 23.41%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -17950.26% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
ABMD
10X GENOMICS, INC. (XNAS:TXG)
MASIMO CORPORATION (XNAS:MASI)
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC. (XNAS:BMRN)
INCYTE CORPORATION (XNAS:INCY)
BIO-TECHNE CORPORATION (XNAS:TECH)
argenx SE (XNAS:ARGX)
PPD
DENTSPLY SIRONA INC. (XNAS:XRAY)
INSULET CORPORATION (XNAS:PODD)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�13%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.03B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
188.16M
843.60M
163.40M
-
423.49M
-
-
586.89M
9.76M
9.76M
20.80M
221.12M
140.72M
136.51M
190.56M
54.06M
136.51M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
6.91M
Differed Income Tax :
6.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.61M
Change in Working Capital :
- 26781.00K
Accounts Receivables:
8.76M
Other Working Capital:
- 278.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
82.85M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
55.36M
Investments in PP&E:
- 7170.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 82821.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 142887.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
175.45M
347.58M
523.03M
88.65M
83.66M
34.54M
729.87M
203.93M
79.01M
47.13M
393.50M
4.96M
-
728.52M
-
1.46B
29.81M
-
3.63M
24.09M
59.22M
113.12M
-
36.89M
37.75M
-
150.87M
454.00K
801.48M
- 12211.0K
517.80M
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
775.05M
1.31B
1.46B
741.07M
-
- 175454.0K
123.82M
-
- 109055.00K
-
-
-
-
- 7470.00K
- 7470.00K
3.91M
- 57256.00K
175.45M
232.71M
55.36M
- 7170.00K
48.19M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
ABMD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$311.36
$339.99
$371.24
$405.37
$442.64