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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Aaon, Inc. (XNAS:AAON) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
AAON
Name:
AAON, INC. (XNAS:AAON)
Sector:
- 20834.00K
Industry:
Building Products & Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Norman Asbjornson
Total Employees:
2,881
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -24.83% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AAON, INC.(AAON) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
57.01
One Month Price Target:
$57.23
Six Month Price Target :
$58.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.67
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.8
Price Upper limit ($) :
$57.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.13
This week:
$50.56
This month :
$44.11
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.93B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.16M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
26.24%
-14.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$70.39
$64.24
$43.63
$49.78
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.24
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.93
$51.76
$53.09
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
AAON
Sharpe Ratio:
1.71%
Comparison:
AAON, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -31.43% lower than the industry
& is -25.02% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
AAON
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.03%
Yearly returns:
21.19%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -41.81% below industry average
Classification:
AAON, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.68
Statistical test of Returns:
AAON has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.49%
Weekly Volatility:
5.56%
Monthly Volatility:
11.13%
Yearly Volatility:
38.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.22%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -51.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.06%
Weekly VaR:
-11.31%
Monthly VaR:
-22.62%
How Much Can the price of
AAON
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-78.36%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.94
This translates to price declining to:
$12.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
AAON is a 59.66% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 36.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -19.44% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
AAON
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.70
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.581
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.822
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.611
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.435
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.609
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.258
Beta is -44.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.393
Beta is -50.06% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.67%
Sustainable growth rate is -58.62% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.044
Alpha is -48.05% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 281% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
AAON
Equity cost of capital:
0.079
Equity cost of capital is -37.63% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.96%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-0.36%
After-tax cost of debt:
-0.29%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-0.29%
WACC is -31.41% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.31
Annual revenue growth rate is -34.72% below industry average
EPS:
$1.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
1.91%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -76.71% lower than the Building Products & Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 18.97%
Equity growth rate per share is -61.81% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$1.51
EBITDA per share
$1.95
Valuation Analysis Today of
AAON
P/E Ratio:
54.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
10179.71
P/E ratio is -99.46% lower than main peers & is 105.61% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $30.20
AAON is 88.79% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $1,275.06
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.94
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.04
Price to sales ratio is 77.24% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.31
-
Price to free cash flow ratio is -7.18% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
37.71%
Net income growth rate is -55.61% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 1.33%
Previous Dividend: $0.19
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.19
Previous Dividend: $0.76
Expected next dividend best case: $0.21
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.17
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.19
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.75%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.19
2021-06-02--$0.19
2020-06-02--$0.19
2021-11-24--$0.19
2020-11-25--$0.19
2019-11-26--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -80.30% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
16.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
15.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
11.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -76.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-348.17
Interest coverage ratio is -182.93% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.384
Statistical significance of correlation:
AAON has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is -36.48% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.047
Kurtosis
21.66
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.485
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
AAON
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.27%
Operating profit margin is -135.07% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.81%
Effective tax rate is -18.66% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.59%
Return on equity (ROE) is -43.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.42%
Return on assets (ROA) is -20.68% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
2.48
Current ratio is -16.05% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
51.2
Cash conversion cycle is 55.62% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.15%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
208.8K
Each employee generates -65% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
35.9K
Each employee generates -72% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
21.0K
Each employee generates -73% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 7.2K
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
150.6K
Each employee generates -178% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
AAON
ADVANCED ENERGY INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:AEIS)
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CWST)
KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:KTOS)
WERNER ENTERPRISES, INC. (XNAS:WERN)
ALLEGIANT TRAVEL COMPANY (XNAS:ALGT)
RENT-A-CENTER, INC. (XNAS:RCII)
FRANKLIN ELECTRIC CO., INC. (XNAS:FELE)
CRYOPORT, INC. (XNAS:CYRX)
BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY, INC. (XNAS:BECN)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
601.50M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
450.76M
150.74M
-
51.22M
73.16M
827.00K
2.97M
76.13M
-
- 297.00K
30.16M
103.41M
73.80M
60.44M
73.54M
13.10M
60.44M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.14M
Differed Income Tax :
973.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.11M
Change in Working Capital :
- 36592.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 43244.00K
Other Working Capital:
18.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
502.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 6803.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 249.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
5.63M
-
5.63M
125.83M
146.09M
6.14M
283.70M
283.23M
81.89M
67.31M
-
-
1.33M
433.76M
-
717.46M
35.80M
1.68M
-
28.41M
48.34M
114.23M
80.32M
9.79M
123.08M
-
237.30M
212.00K
402.37M
-
77.57M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
526.89M
480.16M
717.46M
-
82.00M
76.4M
-
- 14015.00K
- 14264.00K
-
-
- 3278.00K
-
27.09M
23.81M
-
2.74M
6.23M
3.49M
- 6803.00K
- 14031.00K
- 20834.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
AAON
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$59.97
$3,123.12
$3,269.09
$3,421.88
$3,581.81