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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
1St Source Corporation (XNAS:SRCE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
SRCE
Name:
1ST SOURCE CORPORATION (XNAS:SRCE)
Sector:
41.69M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Christopher Murphy
Total Employees:
1,130
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 2181.48% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF 1ST SOURCE CORPORATION(SRCE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.04
One Month Price Target:
$47.29
Six Month Price Target :
$48.55
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.05
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.84
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$44.56
This week:
$41.5
This month :
$35.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
24.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.16%
-12.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$58.54
$53.29
$35.54
$40.79
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$51.58
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$50.46
$42.48
$43.62
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
SRCE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.44%
Comparison:
SRCE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -64.25% lower than the industry
& is -80.73% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
SRCE
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.10%
Monthly returns:
0.40%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -55.66% below industry average
Classification:
SRCE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.19
Statistical test of Returns:
SRCE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.58%
Weekly Volatility:
5.76%
Monthly Volatility:
11.52%
Yearly Volatility:
39.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.72%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.91% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.27%
Weekly VaR:
-11.78%
Monthly VaR:
-23.56%
How Much Can the price of
SRCE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-81.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$37.35
This translates to price declining to:
$8.65
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
SRCE is a 66.29% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 42.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.85% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
SRCE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.95
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.696
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.984
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.856
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.515
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.805
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
3.773
Beta is -74.74% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -1.07% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.73%
Sustainable growth rate is 6.58% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.048
Alpha is -517.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -308% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
SRCE
Equity cost of capital:
0.097
Equity cost of capital is -0.73% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.69%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.27%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.27%
WACC is -15.80% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$13.64
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.26
Annual revenue growth rate is -54.80% below industry average
EPS:
$4.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.60%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -20.15% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.51
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 27.74%
Equity growth rate per share is -28.37% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$5.20
EBITDA per share
$7.77
Valuation Analysis Today of
SRCE
P/E Ratio:
10.05
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.38
P/E ratio is -38.65% lower than main peers & is -18.99% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.20
SRCE is -19.17% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.22
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $13.89
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.45
Price to sales ratio is -19.34% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.26
Price to free cash flow: 7.22
Price to free cash flow ratio is -48.48% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
50.58%
Net income growth rate is -8.17% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.72%
Dividend yeild: 2.64%
Previous Dividend: $0.31
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.31
Previous Dividend: $1.24
Expected next dividend best case: $0.32
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.30
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.69%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/11/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 20/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 13/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/03/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 21/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-02--$0.31
2021-11-01--$0.31
2021-05-03--$0.30
2022-02-07--$0.31
2021-08-02--$0.31
2021-02-01--$0.29
Dividend growth rate is -97.07% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
7.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.60%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.80%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.04% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.21
Interest coverage ratio is 1373.00% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-9.92%
Annual debt growth is -3232% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.87%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.518
Statistical significance of correlation:
SRCE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 3.53% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.044
Kurtosis
5.736
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.346
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
SRCE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.35%
Operating profit margin is -76.70% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
23.14%
Effective tax rate is 7.40% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is 14.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.47%
Return on assets (ROA) is -36.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.62%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
297.5K
Each employee generates -22% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
169.5K
Each employee generates -25% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
104.3K
Each employee generates -26% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
36.9K
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.9M
Each employee generates -56% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
SRCE
STONEX GROUP INC. (XNAS:SNEX)
OAKTREE SPECIALTY LENDING CORPORATION (XNAS:OCSL)
AMERISAFE, INC (XNAS:AMSF)
BPFH
StepStone Group Inc (XNAS:STEP)
STOCK YARDS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:SYBT)
MERCHANTS BANCORP (XNAS:MBIN)
SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:SAFT)
Nuveen Nasdaq 100 Dyn Ov (XNAS:QQQX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
336.21M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
126.90M
126.90M
-
-
-
254.53M
15.69M
22.50M
191.49M
-
117.82M
153.34M
35.48M
117.82M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
5.36M
Differed Income Tax :
80.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
732.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 2114.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 530.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.35M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
41.80M
Investments in PP&E:
- 113.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 145843.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
69.20M
1.86B
1.93B
18.29M
-
-
-
109.15M
83.92M
4.63M
1.98B
-
-
2.17B
10.19B
8.01B
-
5.36M
-
-
-
5.36M
128.33M
-
128.33M
7.22B
7.09B
436.54M
624.50M
- 80537.0K
- 115654.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
864.85M
7.96B
3.83B
133.69M
64.5M
59.04M
- 45210.00K
- 132123.00K
- 2440.00K
-
- 2175.00K
- 7918.00K
- 5442.00K
- 17975.00K
-
- 108295.00K
416.89M
525.19M
41.80M
- 113.00K
41.69M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
SRCE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.30
$69.44
$73.88
$78.62
$83.65