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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
1-800-Flowers.Com, Inc. (XNAS:FLWS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
FLWS
Name:
1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC. (XNAS:FLWS)
Sector:
- 161286.00K
Industry:
Specialty Retail
CEO:
Mr. Christopher McCann
Total Employees:
4,800
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -327.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, INC.(FLWS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.41
One Month Price Target:
$7.48
Six Month Price Target :
$7.81
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.21
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.36
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.46
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.79
This week:
$6.03
This month :
$4.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
434.46M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
64.56M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
20.48%
-28.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.27
$8.97
$4.55
$5.85
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.27
$6.27
$6.55
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
FLWS
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.19%
Comparison:
FLWS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -106.71% lower than the industry
& is -108.41% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
FLWS
Daily returns:
0.00%
Weekly returns:
0.01%
Monthly returns:
0.02%
Yearly returns:
34.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -99.26% below industry average
Classification:
FLWS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.75
Statistical test of Returns:
FLWS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.05%
Weekly Volatility:
9.06%
Monthly Volatility:
18.11%
Yearly Volatility:
62.75%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.53%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 36.49% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.32%
Weekly VaR:
-18.60%
Monthly VaR:
-37.20%
How Much Can the price of
FLWS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.97
This translates to price declining to:
$1.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
FLWS is a 162.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 124.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.49% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
FLWS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.855
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.209
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.116
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.981
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.509
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.526
Beta is 5.57% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.43
Beta is 12.67% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
17.44%
Sustainable growth rate is -47.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.139
Alpha is -163.36% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -886% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
FLWS
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 9.58% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.53%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.53%
WACC is 48.26% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$34.22
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.98
Annual revenue growth rate is 184.68% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.98
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
36.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2.38% higher than the Specialty Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.09
EBITDA per share
$2.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
FLWS
P/E Ratio:
16.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
51.25
P/E ratio is -66.88% lower than main peers & is -21.09% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $21.08
FLWS is -64.85% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.22
Price to sales ratio is -94.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.98
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
190.55%
Net income growth rate is -140.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
53.91%
Net debt to equity ratio:
60.57%
Debt to assets ratio:
24.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
27.25%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
22.71
Interest coverage ratio is -8.30% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
168.61%
Annual debt growth is 140% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.402
Statistical significance of correlation:
FLWS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.475
Stock price is -15.39% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.475
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.054
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.127
Kurtosis
6.207
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.543
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
FLWS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
3.82%
Operating profit margin is -41.23% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
154%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.84%
Effective tax rate is -20.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.29%
Return on equity (ROE) is 834.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.98%
Return on assets (ROA) is -35.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.4
Current ratio is -25.69% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4.3
Cash conversion cycle is -106.60% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
460.2K
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
27.5K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
13.6K
Each employee generates -91% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 33.6K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
146.7K
Each employee generates -181% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 11.77%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -77.06% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
FLWS
DAVE & BUSTER'S ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (XNAS:PLAY)
THE REALREAL, INC. (XNAS:REAL)
PURPLE INNOVATION, INC. (XNAS:PRPL)
CAVCO INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:CVCO)
Niu Technologies (XNAS:NIU)
THE ODP CORPORATION (XNAS:ODP)
GENTHERM INCORPORATED (XNAS:THRM)
Smart Share Global Limited (XNAS:EM)
GrowGeneration Corp. (XNAS:GRWG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/27/22
Revenue:
2.21B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.35B
856.06M
55.86M
105.67M
668.83M
563.16M
46.97M
771.66M
-
5.82M
46.97M
132.11M
84.40M
65.17M
79.32M
14.15M
65.17M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
10.97M
Differed Income Tax :
- 741.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
3.01M
Change in Working Capital :
- 150662.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 9708.00K
Other Working Capital:
2.06M
Other Non-Cash Items:
463.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 150164.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/26/21
2022
Q1
3.79M
-
3.79M
30.64M
282.44M
68.64M
385.50M
330.43M
208.15M
138.14M
-
-
27.66M
704.38M
-
1.09B
65.36M
36.45M
-
-
173.00M
274.81M
264.34M
26.93M
324.70M
-
599.51M
895.00K
272.98M
- 318.0K
216.82M
September 26, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
2.12B
490.37M
1.09B
-
300.80M
297.0M
-
- 11122.00K
- 11122.00K
-
-
- 9065.00K
-
563.00K
- 8502.00K
-
- 169788.00K
3.79M
173.57M
- 150164.00K
- 11122.00K
- 161286.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
FLWS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.25
$30.89
$34.23
$37.94
$42.05